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Sitting Out — Page 4
Trend-O-Meter
No one can say what prices will do in future, so your
forecast is as good as anyone’s. Don’t have
a forecast? Sure you do. To reveal it, simply circle
one or the other of each pair of Bull/Bear statement
below
Bull
That’s the U.S. This is here. Our economy
is in better shape, and our banks didn’t lend
money to high-risk borrowers.
There will always be some affordable places. With our
amenities and restricted land base, we’re more
San Francisco than Saskatoon.
Employment is at an all-time high, and increased trade
with Asia will help compensate for the U.S. Plus, Vancouver’s
economy is quite distinct from B.C.’s.
The loonie’s rise against the greenback began
in 2002, which is also when real estate took off. Against
other currencies there has been little change.
Analysts relying on hard data say that speculation
is no more widespread than usual;
most people buy homes to live in or rent out.
Everywhere has problems. Vancouver’s are minor
and vastly outweighed by its strengths. Livability is
still excellent compared to almost anywhere else.
There’s lots more buyers where they came from.
Bear
Our real estate market will inevitably follow
that of the U.S., where a major downturn is well under
way.
Affordability is at an all-time low and lags behind
every city in Canada—and most around the world.
B.C. and its trade-dependent resource industries will
soon follow the U.S. into recession, with obvious implications
for real estate.
The rapid appreciation of the Canadian dollar will
chase away American (and perhaps other international)
investors.
Flippers and speculators, not investors and owner occupiers,
are behind the price run-up, and they’ll flee
the market like the rats they are.
Once a veritable dream city, Vancouver has been tarnished
by traffic, crime, drugs, and the growing chasm between
rich and poor.
The only people who could still afford to buy have
all been whacked.
If You Circled. . .
FOUR OR MORE “Bull” STATEMENTS,
load up on those presales. With the Olympics almost
here, the boom to come will make the first part of the
decade look like a warm-up act.
FOUR OR MORE “Bear” STATEMENTS,
you expect grim times ahead. Prices could easily drop
10 percent or more—rewarding (at last) those who
showed prudence by selling
in favour of GICs five years ago.
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